The ECB's negotiated wage indicator points to a growth of 2.7% in the first half of 2027, with still limited employee coverage. The revision of 2026 data shows a slight moderation compared to July figures.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its negotiated wage indicator, which anticipates a growth of 2.7% in the first half of 2027. This data, included in the latest publication from the institution, is based on collective agreements signed until the end of August 2026 and extends its forecast horizon to June 2027.
The employee coverage for that period is still low: it reaches 28.8% in the first half of 2027, although it will increase as new agreements are signed. In 2026, coverage stands at 46.9%, but decreases to 32.5% in the first quarter of 2027 and to 25.1% in the second.
The main indicator, which smooths out one-off payments, is at 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027 (with a coverage of 32.5%) and at 2.8% in the second quarter (with a coverage of 25.1%). These figures reflect a moderation compared to the July 2026 data, when the indicator was slightly revised downwards for 2026. The evolution of negotiated wages in the first half of 2026 was marked by the mechanical impact of one-off payments made in the second half of 2024 and not repeated, an effect that completely dissipates in the second half of 2026.
The indicator with unadjusted one-off payments moderated from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026. Meanwhile, the indicator that excludes one-off payments stands at an average of 2.6% in 2026, indicating a limited role of these payments in recent agreements. On a quarterly basis, all indicators are at 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027 and at 2.8% in the second.
The ECB will extend the forecast horizon of the indicator to the third quarter of 2027 in the November 2026 publication and to the full year in December 2026, as new agreements are signed and coverage increases.
The prospective component should not be interpreted as a forecast, as it only reflects currently available information for active collective agreements.
The institution warns that the indicator may be subject to revisions and does not precisely follow the growth of negotiated wages, so deviations over time are to be expected.
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