The Chamber of Spain's Research Service raises its GDP forecast for 2026 to 2.5%, two tenths higher, and predicts 480,000 new jobs with the unemployment rate at 9.7%. Average inflation is expected to rise to 3.2%, five tenths above previous estimates.
The Chamber of Spain's Research Service has upgraded its forecast for the growth of the Spanish economy for 2026 to 2.5%, two tenths higher than its previous estimate. The improvement is supported by the dynamism of activity during the first half of the year and the carry-over effect, despite the complexity of the international scenario, as published by camaraburgos.com.
For 2027, the institution has slightly reduced its forecast from 2% to 1.9%, due to the deterioration of the international environment and high uncertainty.
GDP grew by 2.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, a rate similar to that of the first and clearly higher than that of the main European economies. Growth was supported by the strength of private consumption, the dynamism of service exports, with tourism as a highlighted component, and investment, although the latter moderated compared to the high rates of 2025.
Domestic demand will continue to be the main driver of the economy for the rest of the year, contributing 2.9 percentage points to GDP growth in 2026 and 2 points in 2027. The Chamber of Spain has revised its forecast for household consumption growth for this year upwards to 2.7%, two tenths higher than in March.
For 2027, a slowdown in private consumption is anticipated to 1.8%, compared to the previously forecasted 2.1%. The accumulated loss of purchasing power due to inflation and the tightening of financial conditions, which is being transferred to the Euribor and the cost of mortgages, will limit the expansion margin of household spending.
Investment is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027. These estimates represent a downward revision of one tenth for this year and seven tenths for the next. The anticipated moderation for 2027 is partly due to the gradual reduction of the direct boost from Next Generation EU funds, whose most intense execution phase was concentrated in 2025 and has extended throughout much of 2026.
Within investment, expenditure on capital goods and intellectual property products is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, while investment in construction will advance by 4.9% and 4.2%, respectively.
The central scenario points to a gradual slowdown in the growth rate of the Spanish economy, although the pace of progress will still be significant. This evolution will occur in a global context characterized by moderate, fragile, and uneven growth among geographical areas, marked by geopolitical tensions, the evolution of energy prices, and increasingly restrictive financial conditions in the main Western economies.
The average inflation for 2026 is set at 3.2%, five tenths above its previous forecast. In 2027, price growth will moderate to 2.4%, partly due to the base effect, although this rate exceeds the previously estimated figure by two tenths. Underlying inflation is expected to be 2.8% this year and 2.1% next year.
The rising cost of certain foods and refined energy products is putting pressure on prices. This is compounded by the gradual withdrawal of many of the extraordinary measures adopted by the Government from March onwards to contain the price surge.
The increase in the general price level reduces real income and the purchasing power of households when incomes do not evolve at the same pace, with a proportionally greater impact on those who allocate a higher portion of their income to basic goods. For companies, the persistence of price tensions increases procurement, energy, transport, and labour costs, complicates the formation of expectations, and can reduce margins or be passed on to final prices, affecting investment decisions.
Regarding employment, the Chamber of Spain forecasts the creation of around 480,000 new jobs in 2026, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 9.7%.
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